6 The Risk Landscape

In this chapter, we quantify the risks we’ve previously covered. We talk about risk factors, such as a great power war, and existential security factors, things that decrease the risk without directly targeting the issue itself.

Different Ways to look at prioritization of x-risk

Exercise - Prioritizing between x-risks

• Choose a x-risk and apply the variables of prioritization

  • Which one should we prioritize and why?

  • How are these prioritization-tools helpful?

  • Do they compliment or influence each other?

Variables of Prioritization

• Importance Tractability Neglect (ITN)

• Soon Sudden Sharp

  • Soon vs late; Sudden vs Slow; Sharp vs 'Warning'

• Stage - Origin, Scaling, Endgame

  • Origin - How does the catastrophe get started?

  • Scaling - How does the catastrophe reach a global scale?

  • Endgame - How does the catastrophe finish the job?

  • 

• X - Factor - Risk vs Security

• Overlap

Risk & Security Factors

• What are some examples of risk or security factors? Put in another way, how can we become more/less vulnerable to existential risk?

• Exercise

  • Create a causal chain of risk or security factors that you consider most important, while showing how this would lead to x-risk.

  • Example

    • Factors e.g., Great Power war, global economic stagnation, environmental collapse, breakdown in international order

    • Risk factor e.g., Capitalism increases race for power -> Neglect of AI Safety -> X-risk

    • Security factor e.g., Global regulations on Safe technology -> AI Safety

• Are there fundamental factors contributing to several security and risk factors?

• Could it be possible that it is more cost-effective to invest in security/risk factors rather than x-risk themselves?

Taking Ideas Seriously

• What do the ideas imply, if taken seriously?

• What are effective ways to prevent the harm from x-risks?

  • Targeted vs Fundamental

    • Would you rather invest resources into targeting the immediate causes for existential risk or the root causes?

  • Targeted vs Portfolio#

    • Should one invest in all or specific?

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Official Discussion Guide

Part 1

• Ord estimates the chance of a future near the best possible future at about 50%. What do people think of this?

• Ord writes that the strongest case for broad interventions is for those that are especially neglected. What broad interventions are highly neglected?

• What are other concrete risk/security factors? (Ord gives: Great Power war, global economic stagnation, environmental collapse, breakdown in international order)

Part 2

• General discussion on the Soon-Sudden-Sharp framework (how is it useful, where is it useful, etc.)

• Given how saturated education is, how much effort should go into increasing awareness/education/meta-work to get more people working on these issues compared to direct work?

• Ord mentions wanting to increase the amount of funding going towards x-risk reduction by 100x. What seem to be the biggest bottlenecks? How do the bottlenecks interact with each other?

• How much should comparative advantage and personal fit factor into career decisions given the disparate likelihoods for each risk (and the levels of uncertainty around the numbers)