Week 1: Opportunity of Effective Altruism

Core EA mindset (3 minutes)
  • Altruistic

    • Impact first

    • Alliance mentality

  • Scout Mindset

    • Thinking in probabilities

    • Differentiate between inside view & deferring

    • Humility

  • Generalists

    • Breadth of knowledge about whatever area they're in

  • EA Affluent

    • Ability to elaborate the basic of most EA ideas despite not being their speciality

  • EA Community

    • Having an network & reputation

Core EA principles (3 minutes)
  • Principles First

    • Common ground

    • Higher confidence in principles than most conclusions/activities

  • High-Confidence Principles

    • Scope Sensitivity

    • Impartiality

    • Scout Mindset

    • Trade-Offs

  • Less-Confidence Principles

    • Expected Value

    • Marginal Impact

    • Consequentialism

    • Unusual Ideas

    • ITN Framework

    • Crucial Considerations

    • Forecasting

    • Fermi Estimates

Musings on teaching agency (5 minutes)
  • Responsibility

    • Everything is your responsibility

    • If there is an opportunity, you should take it

  • Action

    • Clarifying Goals

    • Acting towards them

    • Ambition

Hits based giving (15 minutes)
  • Benefits of Hits based giving

    • Past Successes

    • Scale - Expected Value is high

    • Neglect

    • Comparative Advantage

      • Philanthropists are structurally better-suited for hits-based giving than other institutions

  • What is not needed to support Hits based giving

    • Strong evidence before funding

      • Probably most past hits-based successes e.g., Green Revolution did not have strong evidence

    • High probability of success

      • Willingness to fail multiple times

      • Succeed rarely with a big enough success to justify the failures

    • Expert opinion & conventional wisdom

      • Often is a neglected, counterintuitive idea

    • Avoid controversial or adversarial situations

      • e.g., oral contraceptive was controversial at the time

    • Ability to fully justify one-self

      • Summarizing the decision-making for the funding might be too difficult i.e., influence one's funding approach which should be avoided

    • Avoid Conflict of Interest

      • Funding might be given to friends as they share the similar vlaues thats why they are friends

      • Transparency

    • Avoid Overconfindence & underinformed Perceptions of others

      • Difficult to summarize

      • Neglected by others

      • No clear evidence for it

  • Increase likelihood of 'hits'

    • ITN

    • Expert Opinion

    • Little conflict of interest

    • Avoiding Arrogance

      • Acknowledge Uncertainty

      • Well-informed

      • Avoid manipulation, coercion, deception

Evidence Action – We’re Shutting Down No Lean Season (10 minutes)
  • Stopped fundraising while waiting for RCT results

  • Transparency

    1. Share reasons of stopping their project No Lean Season

  • Reasons for Non-Prioritization

    1. RCT results lower than expected

      1. Applied changes to improve & waiting for new RCT results

    2. Complexities

      1. Financial Corruption

      2. Under-age

    3. Better Alternative Opportunities

Alvea’s Story, Wins, and Challenges (15 minutes)
  • Cause Area

    1. Accelerate promising drugs & vaccines into clinical trials

      1. Vaccine against Omicron variant of COVID-19

  • Virtues

    1. Integrity

      1. Return remaining funding to investors

    2. Altruism

      1. As regulators facilitated approval for updated mRNA vaccines this benefit the world while hindering our project

    3. Transparency

      1. Share wins & challenges to benefit others

    4. Skill development of Employees

  • Decision to stop the Project

    1. Difficulty to keep updating vaccines

      1. Time between waves of new variants continued to drop

    2. Difficulty to compete with other vaccines

      1. Regulators facilitated approval for updated mRNA vaccines

    3. Efficacy results where underwhelming

    4. Funding decreased

      1. Change of Funding towards a Outsourcing for other-business-model

    5. Too long and uncertain

  • Challenges

    1. Transitioning

      1. Short-term to Long-term Goals

      2. Increasing or decreasing headcount of employees

  • Critiques

    1. Speeding up

      1. 'without compromising on safety and quality'

    2. Lack of Neglect

      1. Developing Covid Vaccines was one of the least neglected cause areas at that time

Podcast Andy Weber on rendering bioweapons obsolete and ending the new nuclear arms race. (~2 hours)

  • Person Interviewed

    • Andy Weber

    • 5 years worked at US Assistant Secretary of Defensive. Responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction

  • Cause Area Recommendation

    • Mass genetic sequencing

      • direct, real-time analysis of DNA, RNA

        • e.g., at every home, daily inhalation into a tube

      • Facilitates immediate response

    • mRNA vaccines

      • instruct cells to make any random protein we choose & trigger protective immune response

      • Speeds up development i.e., whole country within a month

  • Bio-Weapons are easier to produce than nuclear weapons

    • 'poor man's atomic bomb'

  • Advancement of technology advances immoral potential

  • Decreasing negative impact of Nuclear war

    • Decrease small, tactical 'low-yield' systems on ambiguous delivery platforms used for both conventional and nuclear weapons

  • Personal Scepticism

    • 'which were abandoned by the United States'

      • US is continuing bio-weapon research albeit for 'defensive' purposes

    • 'Together these technologies could make advanced bio-weapons a threat of the past'

      • Sequencing

        • allows design or recreation of more contagious/deadlier strains

      • mRNA Platforms

        • Can be used to deliver harmful proteins i.e., custom bioweapons

    • 'We didn’t want the bad guys — whether it’s organised crime, or operatives from other countries'

Ten wins for farmed animals in 2024
  • Companies fulfil their pledge to go cage-free

    1. e.g., McDonald (USA & Canada), Subway (Europe, Midddle East, Oceania, Indonesia), Yum Brands 25,000 Restaurants 90% cage free

    2. USA 40% of hens are cage free (6% a decade ago)

  • 20% more Space

    1. UK's largest retailers (Tesco, Aldi, etc.) provide 20% more space for their ~350 million chickens

  • Number of male chicks killed in European hatcheries has fallen by about 1/5

    1. In-ovo sexing has reached 20% market penetration

  • Support of Non-Animal Produce

    1. Government invest over $200 million into advancing alternative proteins

  • Animal Rights

    1. European Commission announced a new Health & Animal Welfare Comissioner

    2. Constitutional Clause in Mexico enshrining animal welfare

    3. UK's Tesco & Sainsbury adopted world's first crustacean welfare policies

Future Perfect 50

Cause Areas

  • Animal Welfare

  • AI Safety

  • Global Health & Develpoment

  • Mind

  • Climate change

  • Future vision

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