1 Standing At The Precipice

In Week 1, we go through a brief summary of human history. We look at human progress, an example of a previous existential threat our species has encountered, and the magnitude of the issue.

Future Potential of Humanity

Past & Present

• Is life improving, globally?

Future

• How good do you think life could be?

• How bad do you think life could be?

Safeguarding Potential is a priority

• Will live be good enough to make it worth protecting or will it be bad, implying we should stop a future from happening?

• Are there arguments for safeguarding the future regardless of optimism or pessimism?

Existential Risk

• Does anyone would like to explain what an existential risk is?

• Do you agree that this century is the period with our highest risk of existential catastrophe occurring?

Taking Ideas Seriously

• How should you or as an individual respond to today's reflections?

• How can we, as an individual, affect the world - good or bad?

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Official Discussion Guide

Discussion 1

• What do you think of the allegory in the quotation at the top of the page?

• How much does this represent history? Are there any historical nuances that are looked over by this allegory?

• At the end of the introduction, the author speaks of ‘possible heights of flourishing’, and ‘music we lack the ears to hear’.

• How likely do you think it is that such a world is possible, and what could it look like?

• Does the world of today have some ‘music’ that did not exist in humanity’s past?

• What are some possible problems with the narrative of global progress over time? Does everyone think the world is improving?

• Factory farming, bigger wars, or less respect for ancestors or nature

Discussion 2

• Ord posits that ‘safeguarding humanity’s future should be a central priority of our time’

  • Do you agree with this?

  • How should protecting the future trade off with other morally important actions and vocations?

• ‘The Precipice gives our time immense meaning. In the grand course of history - if we make it that far -- this is what our time will be remembered for: for the highest levels of risk, and for humanity opening its eyes, coming into its maturity and guaranteeing its long and flourishing future. This is the meaning of our time.’

• One assumption behind this book is that we live in a ‘time of perils’, where existential risk is unusually high. As Ord puts it, ‘Our actions have uniquely high stakes’.

  • Is this a reasonable assumption?

  • What evidence do we have for and against this position?

  • How should society ideally change in response to this era?

  • If we think the ‘time of perils’ is yet to come, how can we best prepare for this?