2 Differences in Impact
Last updated
Last updated
Differences in impact
It appears that some of our options to help do many times more good than others. People generally don’t appreciate this, and so miss out on significant opportunities to help.
Decisions despite Uncertainty
Quantification is a complement to, not a replacement for, other decision-making heuristics.
Fermi estimates
make a rough calculation for which option is best. Even if there’s a lot of uncertainty, this can give you a rough answer and can tell you which things are most important to estimate next.
Expected Value (EV) = Probability x Quantity
We’re often uncertain about how much something will help. In such circumstances, it may make sense to weigh each of the outcomes by the likelihood that they occur and pick the action that looks best in expectation.
What benefits does it bring to measure & compare the impact of different interventions such as from charities?
What are examples of outcomes where their effectiveness differs greatly, despite the same investments?
Do you have examples of good-intended projects actually doing more harm than good? How can this exist?
What do you think of making impact measurements mandatory for 'Altruistic Projects' (e.g., charities, NGOs, government aid) & penalize those without?
Does this mean good-intent is not enough?
Quantifying Value - Expected Value
Exercise - Burning Building
There’s a burning building with 500 people trapped inside. And suppose you only have enough resources to implement one of the following two options
Option 1
a) save 400 lives, with certainty, rest dies.
b) save all 500 lives, with 90% probability, save no lives 10% probability
Option 2
a) 100 people die with certainty, rest is saved
b) 90% chance all are saved, 10% chance all 500 people die
Question
Which option do you choose and why?
Would your decision change if a friend of yours is in the building?
Exercise - Medicine
Imagine a disease out-break affecting 1000 people. Two organizations come up with a medicine. They each require the same amount of resources to produce their medicine.
Give Well's Medicine: Eighty percent chance to save 100 lives
Resources for this particular medicine are limited and only enough for 100 people. The other 900 will not receive medicine.
80% * 100 lives = 80 lives
Open Philanthropy's Medicine: Eight percent chance to save 1000 lives
Resources for this particular medicine are enough for 1000 people.
8% * 1000 lives = 80 lives
Where do you invest in & why?
Decision-Making - On what factors should we base our decisions on?
Quantitative approaches such as EV
What are the benefits?
What are limitations of quantitative measurements?
If an intervention is not backed by strong evidence, what are some reasons that it might still be worthwhile to pursue it?
What outcomes are difficult or impossible to measure?
Risk Attitude: seeker, neutral, averse
Should we take our emotions or intuition into consideration?
Imagine a family member or dear friend being affected by the disease outbreak. Does your choice differ?
Should we trust Expert Opinions?
Imagine some trusted Experts deciding one should choose OP's medicine as it will yield better impact according to their interpretation of past experiences. Should you choose OP?
Long-term Effect
Imagine OP's medicine causes long-term blindness, reducing the quality of life. Does your choice differ?
Knock-on Effect
Imagine OP's medicine is based on sustainably produced materials, allowing farmers to have an increased quality of life. While GW's medicine is produced in harsh conditions. Does your choice differ?
What is your moral value?
Impact such as Life, Years of Life, Quality of Life, Species,
Following Rules e.g., Religion
What other methods do you consider to form your beliefs?
How to deal with the fact of making 'tough decisions' under Uncertainty?
Calculate your total future income
e.g., 40 years x 10k/year = 400k
Calculate 10% of total future income
e.g., 400k x 0.1 = 40k
Calculate how many lives you can save with 10% of your total future income. Suppose it requires 5k to save one life.
e.g., 40k / 5k/life = 10 lives
Calculate what you can achieve donating 10% of your total future income when donating to a or multiple .
Seeing the number in front you, does this make you feel?
Do you perceive this as a celebration or guilt? What benefit does each perspective have?
What do the ideas imply, if taken seriously?
How could they impact your actions?
How could they impact society's actions?
Is donation the only or best way to do impact?