2 Reading Summary

A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact

• Benefits of ITN Tool

  • Helps decide which area is most cost-effective

    • Deciding in which area to invest one's resources in may be the most significant factor for your moral impact

    • Differences in impact e.g.,

      • Investing a year of time volunteering walking dogs vs marketing effective charities

    • Provides 'Expected Good per unit of resource'

      • or 'If I work on this, how much good will it do?'

        • 'Good'

          • e.g., Reduction of X-risk, QALY, etc.

        • 'Resources'

          • e.g,. money, years of labor, etc.

  • Helps compare between areas

    • Quantitative e.g., 10 lives saved vs 5 lives

• Disadvantages of ITN

  • Neglect of non-quantifiable

    • Can't measure harm done due to selfishness versus due to cancer

  • Difficult to compare between different 'values'

    • e.g. years of education versus lives saved

  • What is 'valuable' is subjective for most

    • e.g,. Human life vs non-human animal life

  • Uncertainty

    • Scoring on the ITN includes judgement calls

    • Deciding the score is not based on complete data

      • e.g., long-term effects, spill-over effects

The components of the ITN Framework

• Importance (Scale)

  • Benefit

    • Showing the potential good caused

  • Defined as

    • Good done / % of problem solved

    • 'if we solved the problem, how good would it be?'

  • Example

    • Solving Cancer (8% of QALY lost/year)

    • Malaria (2.7% QALY lost/year)

  • Measurement 'Yardsticks'

    • One can choose whatever one deems valuable

      • It is recommended to choose those that are

        • measurable

        • change in the measure influences positive impact

    • e.g,. reduction in x-risk, GDP growth, QALY

    • e.g., collaboration, critical thinking, good intent, capacity building

  • 
• Tractability (Solvability)

  • Benefit

    • Showing the potential of progress in solving the problem

  • Defined as

    • % of a problem solved / % increase in resources

    • 'if we doubled the resources dedicated to solving this problem, what fraction of the problem would we expect to solve?'

  • Why is this factor important?

    • Even if problem is important + neglected does not mean it is important to focus on it:

      • If you can't solve it

      • Very difficult to solve / impossible for now

        • e.g., All matter is sentient (experiences pain & happiness)

        • e.g,. Ageing vs symptoms of ageing

      • Solvable

        • e.g. Bednets / vaccine for malaria

  • Measurement 'Yardsticks'

    • 'if we doubled the resources dedicated to solving this problem, what fraction of the problem would we expect to solve?'

  • How to Score

    • Existence of

      • proven cost-effective interventions exist

      • unproven cost-effective interventions

      • good track record

        • e.g., medicine has a good track record of solving problems i.e., has potential

      • low probability but high potential impact

        • e.g., lottery jackpot

  • 
• Neglectedness (Crowdedness)

  • Benefit

    • Showing high marginal return

      • The more resources go into an area, due to diminishing returns, the less marginal return you have per extra resource added

  • Defined as

    • % increase in resources / extra person or $

    • 'how many resources are already going towards solving this problem?'

  • Example

    • Global Health receives 300bn/a vs 100 million for factory farming

    • Investments for the benefit of short-term vs long-term

  • Measurement 'Yardsticks'

    • Money invested / year

    • Staff working on it

  • How to Score

    • Based on existing data

    • Based on future expectations

      • Any reasons this will not solved by forces of

        • economic market

        • governments

        • hedonistic treadmill of individuals

  • 

• Choosing YOUR area to focus on - Personal Fit

  • Match your skills with skills beneficial for high-scoring ITN areas