4-7 Choose
Last updated
Last updated
At the beginning of each session, collect the points of interest from your participants for the session.
Below are some points for inspiration.
Importance
How will you and/or society benefit from AI?
Do you have day-to-day benefits as well as global benefits?
How will you and/or society be harmed by AI?
What are scenarios for non-existential catastrophes?
Are there present examples?
What are scenarios for existential catastrophes?
What are the primary causes underlying these scenarios?
What are some warning signs that transformative AI is coming soon?
Which year do you think transformative AI arrives?
Tractability
What are realistic solutions to the problems addressed?
Do you consider global cooperation a realistic solution?
Considering the current competitiveness between nations, do you believe e.g., USA & China, will focus on Safety rather than power?
Exercise:
How many different fields should work on AI apart from Machine learning?
In the case of evil AI
Do you think humanity can control AGI?
imagine encountering someone who is 100x smarter than you. Do you think you could control that person?
Do you think AI has intrinsic ill or good-intent?
Does intelligence automatically, provide moral intent?
How do you suggest solving the Alignment Problem i.e., there is no consensus about what is good & bad, however we have to teach it to something that may be the most powerful entity?
Role-play exercise
Imagine you are all-powerful, and 1000 more intelligent than your advisors (e.g., imagine them to be monkeys)
How would you make decisions?
Will AI give humanity even more power, further imbalancing power vs wisdom
Importance
What kind of biological scenario could lead to an x-risk?
What are the variables increasing or decreasing the x-risk?
How does GCBR compare to AI Safety?
Solvability
How to solve GCBR?
What did change over history that makes us more resilient or more vulnerable?
What can we learn from the Covid-19 Pandemic?
Enforcement
Do you think the restrictions of the covid-19 pandemic were justified?
How far should 'personal freedom' go?
How can the biological weapons convention be better enforced when it doesn't have mandatory audits for countries that agreed to it?
Who should make decisions on biosecurity guidelines? Currently the WHO's guidelines 'trickle down' to individual scientists. But each country, lab, and scientist have variation in following them.
Trust
How do conspiracy theories/misinformation affect our ability to reduce global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs)?
Do you see it realistic to prevent a GCBR even when the resources are readily available to everyone in the future?
Progressing Research
Who should get to decide who can approve a research project?
All research is dual-use (could be used for 'good' or 'bad'). So how do we prevent misuse without foregoing the potential upside?
Global Cooperation Exercise
Instructions
Pick a country you will represent in a global conference on cooperation. Try to have nations with conflicting political views e.g., west, east
Choose a topic of high significance related to the global power and national interests e.g., AGI Development, Climate Change, Space Resources
Talk from the Point of View of the nation you have chosen, not from your PoV
Reflect
What did you achieve to agree upon and what did you fail to agree upon even though it would have been beneficial?
Do you think it is realistic to expect global cooperation in areas that could cause threats to the national interests from other countries? If no, what good can be be done to improve upon this fact?
Are there real examples of global cooperation?
What are the causes for global cooperation & global conflict? How can we improve global cooperation most cost-effectively?
What type of Global Governance?
How should we fairly distribute the power of the citizens within the global government?
e.g., by nation, population, GDP, etc
Do you think current powerful international organizations have fair distributions? How to improve upon them?
How powerful should world governance be?
Should it be able to over-rule decisions from their members?
Should it be able to intervene in national or only global matters?
What are current global cooperation's and what can we learn from them?
How important is 'global governance' for doing good better?
What are examples where global cooperation prevented, reduced or started, increased the negative impact of an event?
What x-risks or global catastrophes would be more likely if we wouldn't cooperate globally?
Resources
https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/great-power-conflict/ - Has more resources within
https://www.effectivealtruism.org/articles/ea-global-2018-risks-from-great-power-conflicts
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mBM4y2CjfYef4DGcd/modelling-great-power-conflict-as-an-existential-risk-factor
Global Cooperation Exercise
Instructions
Pick a country you will represent in a global conference on cooperation. Try to have nations with conflicting political views e.g., west, east
Choose a topic of high significance related to the global power and national interests e.g., AGI Development, Climate Change, Space Resources
Talk from the Point of View of the nation you have chosen, not from your PoV
Reflect
What did you achieve to agree upon and what did you fail to agree upon even though it would have been beneficial?
Do you think it is realistic to expect global cooperation in areas that could cause threats to the national interests from other countries? If no, what good can be be done to improve upon this fact?
What are the causes for global cooperation & global conflict? How can we improve global cooperation most cost-effectively?
Reflect upon past & present conflicts and how they were solved
What are the supportive and preventive causes for GPC?
Which causes do you find most plausible & least plausible?
What do you think is the most basic cause of conflict?
How likely/in what scnearios do you think GPC could lead to x-risk or rather supporting other x-risk?
Solutions for GPC?
World Governance?
Causes for past / present GPC?
WW1/2, vietnam war, crusade
In what ways can we have GPC apart from weapons/arms?
Do you consider power conflicts to become more risky as time and technology advances?
What do you suggest to be done?
What could that future tech be?
Tractability
Assuming a GPC is unavoidable - what to do to minimize x-risk & longtermism?
Importance
What is 'Non-Developed' and 'Developed'?
Can you imagine living in extreme poverty yourself? Is this something you can empathise with, or is it too far from your lived experience?
What does global poverty mean to you? How does this make you feel?
How does the importance of supporting this cause area compare to others?
Solvability
How to cost-effectively support Global Development?
Is Global development improving? If, what are the causes?
What can we learn from countries that changed from non-developed to developed?
Why do you think India and China saw such rapid decreases in poverty, while sub-saharan Africa saw increases in extreme poverty?
Is Development a choice by the country or is it dependent on the good-will of other countries or the world?
What is EA neglecting or doing wrong that could help Global Development?
Taking Ideas Seriously
Moral Obligation
Do we have a moral obligation to help others?
Are rich countries violating the human rights of those in poverty by not providing more aid?
Scale
What is your opinion about the idea of UBI?
Do you think it is something a society should strive towards?
Is work necessary for the improvement of the world?
What positive impacts could UBI have?
What problems would it solve?
What would you do?
What could you do, that you couldn't?
What negative effects could UBI have?
Do you see it possible that a significant amount of citizens will decide not to work, hence negatively impacting the economy?
How does it affect other cause areas?
If not UBI, what is the alternative?
Solvability
What are the forces against the implementation of UBI?
Will UBI solve systematic issues?
Technology has improved, however working seems to increase. Could this mean that technological advancement is not the solution?
Is UBI possible yet, or only when complete automation is available?
What are the required steps for UBI to become a reality?
How about jobs no one wants to do?
How much should it cover? Basics or luxury?
The Idea is around long, why hasn't it been implemented yet?
What transitionary problems might come up?
Imagine someone increasing the price of rent now
Do you consider funding a solvable aspect?
What do you think are the biggest misunderstandings about UBI?
Do you think you will experience UBI in your lifetime?
How would you implement it?
Frequency, Currency or needs, Global, Individual vs Household, Conditionality
Any programs that you know about?
What are similar solutions to UBI?
What does 'politics' include?
Importance
How do Politics cause good/bad and how does it's scale compare to non-politic methods?
e.g., development of vaccine vs subsidizing vaccine research
Solvability
How does a EA-aligned Political system look like?
How is current governance not aligned with EA principles?
e.g., cost-effectiveness, moral circle, longtermism, x-risk
Which government form will lead to maximized well-being in the long-run?
Should EA focus on
specific policy changes via lobbying
training EA-aligned politicians
Funding EA-aligned politicians
Taking Ideas seriously
Should EA provide official stances to politics?
e.g., Russia-Ukraine War, Covid-19 Vaccine Distribution
How would you approach...
Whistle-blowing
Direct Democracy
Lobbying
Tax & Wealth Distribution
Borders & Immigration
Right movement to non-human animals, future generations
Global Governance
What is the role of EA in regards to neartermist problems such as agriculture, food systems, bio-diversity, migration, illegal working, human rights?
Scale
How do the above relate to doing the most good?
Risk & Security factors are either increasing or lowering the probability of x-risk. How do these cause candidates relate to the factors?
Is EA justified in prioritizing longtermist over neartermist areas?
How do you suggest prioritizing between potential cause areas?
What forms of Activism are there?
Is a conversation about EA at the dinner table considered Activism?
Effectiveness of Activism
What activist movements had significant impact within human history or in your personal life? Why do you think that particular movement was significant?
Is it sometimes necessary to cause 'pain' in order to create positive change - or is there always a better peaceful solution?
Does that mean strikes of employees not being paid their just wage is not good?
Taking Ideas Seriously
What topic do you consider doing 'Activism' for? How would you approach it to achieve effective impact?
Importance of S-Risks
Are S-Risks always x-risks?
How likely do you see s-risks?
Do you think we should take expected value seriously even with very low probabilities?
What do you see more important s- or x-risks?
What do you think about the empahsis on suffering rather than aiming to create positive value?
Solutions for S-Risks
What are effective solutions to S-risks?
e.g., Values, Moral Circle Expansion, government forms, technology
Resources
Scale & Importance
What is Decision Theory?
Where is it applied in your life? Where is it applied in EA?
Is it possible to not make decisions? Should we always make the best decision?
Why does decision theory matter morally? What are the potential benefits?
What happens, if we do not place significance on decision theory?
Imagine a world where you knew with 100% certainty the outcome of an action. Would that matter morally?
How does decision theory impact other cause areas such as existential risk, longtermism or animal welfare?
Solvability
What methods do you use to improve your decision making?
Expected Value Reasoning - Pro & Con
e.g., Probability x Quantity = EV
50% x Save 3 Kittens = 1.5
100% x Save 1 Kitten = 1
How do you decide between ... ?
Which charity to invest in?
Whether to pay for an insurance or warranty?
To consider non-human animals as moral patients?
Give Well (High Probability) vs Open Philantropy (Low probability)?
100% Certainty - What are the best next steps to decrease our uncertainty towards 0%?
How do you judge someone as good or bad?
Intention -> Decision -> Action -> Consequence
Is someone who made a 'bad' decision and having a good outcome a good person?
Is someone who made a 'good' decision while having a bad outcome a bad person?
How does the your law or culture judge?
Risk Affinity
Should an EA be risk averse, seeking or neutral?
Criticism
How to make good decisions despite..?
Not having all information
Not being sure about the probability
Not being sure about the correct 'value'
Not being sure about long-term effects
Not being sure about the correctness of the model for calculating EV
Importance
Where do you EA experience uncertainty or cluelessness?
Where does EA experience uncertainty or cluelessness?
Why does uncertainty or cluelessness matter? What negative implications does it bring?
Should longtermism be de-prioritized due to increasing uncertainty as well as cluelessness? Does this apply to short-termism as well?
What information could you receive that could drastically change your decisions/actions?
Example
Government deciding on a carbon tax will cause a reduction of well-being for the short-term, while providing an increased well-being to the future. How should we weigh the present vs the future?
Solvability
How to positively cope with uncertainty and cluelessness?
Are there some information that should be prioritized in gaining certainty/cluefulness?
How do you decide what is morally good or bad? What Moral Framework(s) do you use? Do you apply them in extreme cases?
What tools do you recommend to deal with uncertainty & cluelessness?
e.g., cost-effective analysis, expected value reasoning, RCTs
Could the issue of uncertainty, cluelessness be solved if having specific moral frameworks other than consequentialism? Should we?
How can we increase our probability to morally progress despite cluelessness and uncertainty? Are we morally progressing?
Taking Ideas Seriously
In the case of 'cluefulness' and certainty on what leads to the best consequences, what is still missing to actually cause these best consequences?
Terms that should be clear:
Moral Humility
Moral Circle
Moral Patienthood
Moral Agent
Moral Weight
Importance
What criteria should we use to determine moral worth?
Instrumental Value - Potential to Contribute
Moral Agency
Moral Intent, Clarity, Capacity
Intrinsic Value
Welfare
Moral Patienthood, Sentience, Welfare Range
Is the suffering between sentient beings comparable?
Factory farming vs Human Enslavement
Is it possible that AI's will have higher moral worth than human beings?
What would increase the moral weight of a being?
Does Moral Worth depend on moral patienthood (sentient or not)?
Does the planet (or a boat) possess intrinsic value that outweighs the worth of individuals?
Exercise
Create a moral circle based on moral weight
Resources
Present your Moral Framework
Instructions
Everyone has the opportunity to share their reasons behind their moral framework
Receive feedback from your group
What are some objections?
What points do you strongly agree with?
Questions that a moral framework should be able to answer
What & Why is something good or bad?
How to judge someone's actions?
Why & who is in your moral circle?
What would a perfect world look like?
Do we have a moral responsibility?
Importance
Does it actually matter if we follow one or another moral framework?
Reviewing humanity's history or present - has there been moral mistakes that could have been avoided using different moral frameworks?
Understanding Moral Frameworks
What are the benefits of having moral frameworks?
How do you judge what is good or bad, better or worse?
Do you have some examples, uncertainties, or moral dilemmas?
Three Main Frameworks
Good or Bad Intention - Virtue Ethics
Whether something is good or bad depends on whether it comes virtuous or vicious intentions
Following or breaking Rules - Deontoloy
Whether something is good or bad depends on whether you follow or break a rule
Good or Bad Consequences - Consequentialism
Whether something is good or bad depends on whether something has good or bad consequences
What good could be done, and bad avoided if we follow XYZ?
What good is prevented, and bad done if we follow XYZ?
Which moral framework does EA follow?
Taking Ideas Seriously
Is morality subjective or objective?
Do we have an obligation to do good, if it is possible?
Should it be penalized if you do not follow that obligation?
Is morality happening 24/7 or are there exceptions?
Is it actually possible to apply one's moral framework to daily life?
Do you consider the following good or bad?
Going to the supermarket and paying for animal products e.g., meat, dairy, eggs, honey
Taking an airplane for a holiday, contributing to Climate Change and making life of future generations possibly worse?
Relaxing on the weekend even though one could contribute to the good of the world?
Acknowledging moral uncertainty, do you agree that we should place importance on the perspectives of other moral frameworks or we should adhere to one framework consistently?
Do you think moral frameworks can support each other or are conflicting?
Self-Care
How to healthily cope with the conflict between one's own values and actions? As well as witnessing other's acting against your values?
Homework
For the following days, look at others and notice their moral framework
What are the strengths and weaknesses of ’s methodology?
n
